What the evidence says
The IMF’s October 2026 financial-stability overview highlights vulnerabilities involving liquidity mismatch, leverage and concentrated exposures. These are system-level observations, rather than predictions of a loss for a specific portfolio.
IMF · October 2026 →From observation to a useful question
Our interpretation: an allocation discussion becomes more useful when it includes the cash required during a defined period. A portfolio may have substantial stated value while its immediately available cash is insufficient for a near-term outflow.
Ask what can be used today, what requires a sale, and what is subject to notice periods, settlement delays or restrictions. The scenario planner intentionally treats only the entered cash allocation as immediately available; it does not assume that securities can be sold.
Governance matters as much as the number
IOSCO’s revised 2025 liquidity recommendations cover documented criteria, information sources, responsibilities and escalation. They are recommendations for collective investment schemes, with implementation dependent on local requirements.
IOSCO · May 2025 →A question to take to your next review
If an outflow had to be met without selling other assets, how much of it would the current cash balance cover?
Test a cash-outflow scenario →What the demonstration leaves out
Collateral calls, leverage, subscriptions, dealing terms, credit facilities, sale costs and settlement timing can change the result. A negative cash balance indicates a modelled shortfall, not a prediction of default. The tool is not a regulatory liquidity stress test.
← Research and full source ledger